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Re: (erielack) Northwest Passage threat?

Oops, I apologize for inadvertently including the entire digest in my 
response to Jim's post. I'm going to blame an insufficient blood caffeine 
level, and promise to drink at least 2 cups of coffee before responding to 
future posts (a thinking person's list but not thinking this morning). 
Here's how it was supposed to look:

Jim and List,

It's interesting speculation but far enough in the future to make it just
that: speculation. Future climate conditions are unpredictable and the
current warming could reverse at any time. A more immediate threat is the
plan to upgrade the Panama Canal to accomodate Post-Panamax ships. Then it
becomes a question of the Big Four maintaining service levels to maintain a
significant advantage in transit time. Many more UP-style service meltdowns
will divert significant traffic. How much do international containers figure
into Big Four traffic? Plenty. Intermodal is now the largest traffic segment
in terms of ton-miles and revenue, and at least 70% of current US intermodal
traffic is based on trans-ocean. It is the reason for all the current
double- and triple-tracking going on out west, and why current production of
doublestack cars emphasizes 40' wells.  What happens if much of this traffic
leaves the rails? It would be a major blow, of course, but in its place may
be a large volume of domestic intermodal, diverted off the highways by
$10-$15/gal diesel. In any event, it's evident that thorough and ongoing
analysis of projected traffic trends gives BNSF and UP enough confidence to
continue with substantial capital investment.

Will the former Erie Buffalo-NY route benefit from continued growth in
intermodal? Possible but unlikely. Its main strategic value is supplementing
the largely single-track River Line (former West Shore), but of course one
is NS and the other is CSX, and NS is not going to give CSX a competitive
advantage by easing its congestion problem, unless forced to by legislative
edict. Instead, we'll see the double-tracking of the River Line.

Paul B

From: JG at graytrainpix <graytrainpix_@_hotmail.com>
Subject: (erielack) Northwest Passage threat?

Even though this List is dedicated to a railroad that has been gone for 33 
years now (a third of a century -- yikes!), I have found it to be a fairly 
good source  of info on current industry trends.  Many of you are quite 
savvy regarding the business of railroading, past AND present.  This group 
is definitely not limited to rivet-counting and reminiscing!  (Not that 
there's anything wrong with rivet counting and reminiscing ...)

So, with that in mind, I thought I might solicit some commentary on recent 
speculation that within the next decade or two, a commercial shipping lane 
across the Arctic Sea may open up due to warming trends.  I recently read 
that this would save about 4,000 miles from Asian Pacific ports to New York 
versus the Panama Canal; and, of course, it would eliminate ship size 
limitations imposed by the Canal.  So what might that do to double-stack 
container traffic on the rails?  How much do the big four lines currently 
depend upon international traffic from Asia to East Coast markets?  Could 
the RR "land bridge" still compete against an all-ship route via the NW 
Passage?

And how does this relate to the EL?  Well, think about the impact that the 
opening of the St. Lawrence Seaway had on the Erie and DL, along with the LV 
and NYC and PRR and B&O even.  Also -- if the consumer economy continues to 
grow vigorously (despite the current setbacks), one could at least hope that 
international traffic saturation on the Water Level and Horseshoe Curve 
routes might eventually make what remains of the EL into an attractive 
"overflow" route.  But if a ship could bring containers from Korea to Port 
Newark more efficiently, then the former EL might remain a secondary route 
seeing little traffic.
 


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