(erielack) Conroversial Subject?

[RJFlei_@_aol.com]

Paul,
 
We have the advantage of hindsight these days. Who would have thought  
manufacturing would have gone into the ditch as it has done, especially when the  
Erie - Lackawanna merger took place?
 
Look what has happened to the shoe business in NY state. All you have to do  
is look at what has happened to online cities, both on Erie, and Lackawanna  
lines. I really don't know much about Lackawanna online cities, but remember  
both lines are in the rust belt. Chicago, Dayton, Marion, Cleveland, Akron,  
Warren, Youngstown, Sharon, Greenville, Meadville, Jamestown, Buffalo, on and on 
 you can go. Trenton, NJ., though not an online city, has lost 80% of its  
manufacturing base.
 
The above mentioned cities have suffered quite a bit due to offshoring and  
outsourcing. There have also been technology changes that also have affected  
online businesses. Let's take one customer. My former employer, Packard 
Electric  Div. of General Motors, now known as Delphi Corp. We used to receive tank 
cars  of chemicals, boxcars of copper, and center flows of plastic compound 
(pellets),  and we used to ship 12, 50 ft. boxcars of wiring harnesses to 
assembly plants  daily. Today they ship nothing by rail. Receive only occasional 
center flow cars  of compound. Three of the five plants in the North River Rd. 
complex have been  or will soon be shut down. Work has been shifted to Mexico & 
China. Within  about 3 years the remaining plants are expected to close. The 
wire will be made  in Mexico and China. 
 
I've been reading a book by Thomas L. Friedman called "The World Is Flat".  
Friedman quotes a professor from Ohio State University that is telling American 
 manufacturers to get out of the country NOW because if they don't, they 
won't be  able to compete in the global economy and will eventually go out of 
business.  Folks, it's not about competing with other US companies. It's about 
competing  with Mexicans at $2 an hour and Chinese at 68 cents an hour with 
national  healthcare. Don't be fooled. There are very few jobs that are immune to 
this.  Even professional jobs. Corporations can get software engineers in India 
for $  5, 000 a year!
 
If this is the case throughout the the region there would be no reason for  
the EL to exist today except in the form of various short lines as we are  
seeing. I think another big factor was the decline of the coal business on Erie  
and Lackawanna lines that at one time provided a good source of revenue. Those  
days are long gone.
 
I think the only way E-L could have survived somewhat intact would be if  
they had gone into Chessie System back in 1976? Still, most of the west end  
would have been gone and probably quite a bit of the Lackawanna.
The remainder of EL would have been operated as part of the B&O. I  think 
doublestacks could have been operated over the line as well as coal  business for 
power plants.
 
Looking at the situation today with Conrail split up between NS and CSX who  
knows what would have happened to EL? Let's assume EL WAS part of the  
B&O.Would anyone on the list care to speculate? Would the EL lose all of  it's 
business the CSX's NYC lines? Would the NYC lines handle priority freights  and EL 
lines handle coal shipments? Would EL serve to handle any CSX overflow  and be 
a third mainline? Would EL lines be sold? Abandoned? Would EL be  segmented 
into a number of short lines to handle the little bit of local traffic  the 
trunk lines don't want to be bothered with?
 
Please excuse my rambling.
 
Rick Fleischer
ELHS 1426
Cortland, Oh



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